Or how a little bit of energy can make a big difference

Frank Vandewiele

You have to hand it to Wout van Aert, his post-race analyses are always very candid. Even now after the 2023 cyclocross World Championships.

"I hate it but I love it".

"I hung on to hang on"

"Mathieu was the strongest, but that doesn't mean I couldn't have won".

"I have to think again about the mistake I am making".

Although that last sentence seems to be an answer to a suggestive question from a sportscaster, it is worth checking whether there is also a scientific explanation for that lesser ultimate jump.

Could Wout have won and did he indeed make a mistake?

We have given some thought to Wout's "mistake" ourselves. However, since we don't have the exact power values nor the absolute anaerobic reserve of both champions, we are forced to fall back on our own database but actually it doesn't make much difference to the point we want to make.

An excellent sprinter that we coach can present the following figures:

- Maximum power over 30" : 1005 watts

- Sprint power over 13": 1371 Watt

- Sprint power over 15": 1348 Watt

- Sprint power over 17": 1327 Watt

A little calculation tells us that in thirty seconds our rider can consume 82% of his anaerobic energy reserve - because that's what we're talking about: the anaerobic energy reserve - which earns him the label "explosive rider."

The film footage shows Mathieu van der Poel going about 13" full blast. In our rider's example, this means that he must then have 57% of his anaerobic energy reserve available. That according to some (and himself?) Wout should have started earlier, physiologically speaking and again in the example of our own rider, means that to go 15 "or 17" full-throttle there should be a reserve of 64% and 71% in the tank, respectively.

So a long sprint means that the rider needs to keep a large part of his anaerobic reserve available anyway.

After an hour of cross at such a level and with Wout himself indicating "just hanging on", it seems unlikely that Wout still had that much reserve.

Did Wout not have the super legs on Sunday? Could be.

Can Wout handle a long sprint when he's on top? Could be.

Should that last question be answered in the negative, the question remains whether such ability is trainable. Yes, but the next question is whether that is desirable given his helper role for Vingegaard at the Tour. No, because for that role, after all, he needs to manage his anaerobic reserve differently because for the long climbs, rather a "slow death" is the right choice.

Then what about the green jersey in the Tour? A lot would have to go wrong not to take that jersey for the following reasons:

- With a good "lead out" he can save up his own anaerobic reserve and avoid a long sprint.

- In the tougher stages - where a select group gets to the finish line - the typical sprinters are out of the picture.

- His anaerobic reserve is large enough to blend in among the top sprinters at the intermediate sprints and thus take points.

Another thing: 10% more or less anaerobic energy represents only the energy of a sip of coca cola. So the system has a very small capacity but, on the other hand, can deliver an enormous amount of power. The implications were clear on Sunday.

Decision. Could van Aert win this World Cup? More than likely not.