THE POGACAR PHENOMENON

There are not enough superlatives to describe Tadej Pogacar's achievements. He excels in both one-day races and stage races, leaving the competition behind when he sees fit.

As is often the case, science lags behind: at a certain point, existing laws no longer suffice, forcing us to search for new ones. Remember Chris Froome and his high cadence uphill? Something that couldn't really be explained with classical insights into muscle physiology? So it was suggested that he might be a mutant athlete whose II A muscle fiber—which falls somewhere between type I (slow) and II (fast)—had shifted the classic 80/20 ratio for endurance athletes to perhaps 65/35.

Even now, physiologists seem to have no definitive answer to the utterly unimaginable abilities of the prodigy Pogacar. They may be published at some point, but for now we have to make do with publicly available climbing times, power estimates, sugar intake estimates, information from the UAE website, data extrapolations, and other "assumptions" such as air resistance, rolling resistance, and drafting.

This also applies to a recent publication by Ole Kristian Berg

in “Journal of Science and Cycling, 2025, Volume 14” - Tour  de  Physiology: The  Exceptional  Power  Outputs  and V̇O₂ of climbing in the Tour de France.

VO2max ?

He analyzed Tadej's performance on six climbs: Plateau de Beille, Isola 2000, Col de la Couillole, Hautacam, Peyragudes, and Mont Ventoux. According to this study, his performance on these climbs suggests an average power output of 442 W or 6.7 W/kg for 40 minutes. During the Peyragudes climbing time trial, Tadej pedaled at an estimated 7W/kg for about 20 minutes. Froome and Contador could only dream of this some 10 years ago.

Such performances also require an average oxygen consumption of 80 ml/kg/min over 40 minutes, so after extrapolation, Pogacar's VO2max should be around 96 ml/kg/min! Froome's was calculated at 88 ml/kg/min.

Gross Efficiency and Cycling Economy ?

However, recent research has shown that a high VO2max is not always the key to success. Riders with a slightly lower VO2max are able to achieve similar performances thanks to the fact that they pedal more efficiently and/or economically. It could therefore be that the other top riders, Vingegaard and Evenepoel, compensate for their potentially lower VO2max with greater efficiency. But what if the opposite is true? What if Pogacar has both a higher VO2max and cycles more economically than his direct opponents? That better economy could very well be the case if we look at the above climbing performance.

This automatically brings to mind Sir David Brailsford's statement about “marginal gains” and the fact that Tadej Pogacar is compared to a machine in the media. Because the “human” machine is not an efficient machine—it converts only 20 to 25% of the energy supplied into mechanical energy—a 1 or 2 percent gain can make a difference.

If Pogacar's machine does indeed perform better than other machines, this has very significant consequences. In what follows, we will outline a possible explanation for his superiority based on the only “official” data available to us.

In an interview, Tadej says that in his zone 2—the zone with the highest percentage of fat burning (and the lowest glycogen consumption)—he develops 320 to 340 W for 4 to 5 hours. A “coffee ride” at an average of 330 W! These data suggest that his Recovery Threshold (*) (the moment when he starts to draw on his anaerobic reserves) is even higher. So it could well be that while Pogacar is still riding with fingers in nose, his opponents already have to draw on their W double prime value (*) (a mixed aerobic-anaerobic energy where mountain goats score high). The result is that when Pogacar decides it's time to attack, his competitors:

• had to dig deeper into their glycogen reserves,
• have tapped into their anaerobic energy reserves, meaning that they are already experiencing the onset of acidification,
• have been forced to use their white fibers as a kind of auxiliary motor in order to keep up with the “coffee ride pace.” White muscle fibers that
o are not as efficient at performing aerobic work
o recover much less effectively. This was recently demonstrated in a study at the University of Ghent. Researchers there have shown that muscle fiber typology plays a significant role in the course of recovery, both acute and chronic. In plain terms: both during the race and in the hours and days after, red fibers recover significantly faster than white ones.

Result: well-replenished glycogen stores, full access to his anaerobic energy reserve and an estimated high W” value – partly due to his extremely high VO2max value – allow him to sustain a long, scorching attack and leave his largely exhausted opponents behind.

Durability?

Durability, or the ability to maintain performance levels when fatigued, is considered a prerequisite for success in modern training theory. It is quite possible that Tadej has good, even better durability than others but considering the above analysis, attributing greater durability to Pogacar seems rather simplistic. After all, Tadej is not yet fatigued when he attacks.

Repeatability?

Repeatability, or the ability to deliver repeated, very intensive efforts with only short rest breaks, is obviously related to the size of the anaerobic energy reserve, but certainly also to the rider's recovery characteristics. When we talk about recovery, we talk about VO2max. If Tadej does indeed have 96 ml of oxygen per kilogram of body weight per minute at his disposal, his repeatability must also be exceptional, allowing him to parry a barrage of attacks.

Trainability?

An athlete's physiology is undoubtedly genetically determined and the influence of training on the progress a person can make is not believed to be spectacular. After all, you can't turn a farm horse into a racehorse. Since we cannot imagine that Pogacar uses training methods that are unknown to other top athletes, the only question that remains is whether this “corps surhumain” - as the French can put it so lyrically - also has the talent to respond to training better than other riders? In other words, an above-average trainability.

In summary

An above-average VO2max? + An above-average GE/CE? + An above-average Repeatability? + An above-average Trainability?

= Superior Performance

(*) As explained in the book “Cycling Training in 2025 +”